***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.4 5.6 -0.6 41.5 42.9 2.6 4.1 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.7 5.3 -0.7 41.1 42.7 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.1 5.5 -0.5 43.3 44.5 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.1 -0.4 3.1 -0.6 41.4 43.8 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.5 3.1 -0.5 43.3 45.1 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.0 1.8 -0.2 46.7 48.5 0.8 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.6 2.6 5.1 -0.8 39.4 41.3 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -1.1 2.2 0.0 50.0 50.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.5 3.7 -0.4 44.0 45.4 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 3.5 2.7 -0.2 47.2 47.9 2.3 3.7 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.8 2.9 -0.3 45.7 47.0 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.9 2.9 -0.1 48.7 49.2 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.0 2.4 -0.3 46.2 47.9 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.1 4.0 -0.3 46.5 47.1 3.1 4.3 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.9 3.6 -0.7 39.7 42.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.5 2.6 -0.3 45.5 47.1 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.9 4.9 -0.8 39.9 41.7 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.0 2.4 -0.1 49.2 49.5 0.9 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.0 5.4 -0.5 42.9 44.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -0.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 51.5 52.1 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.0 4.8 -0.5 43.0 44.5 2.1 3.5 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.6 5.0 -0.7 41.7 43.0 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.3 5.2 -0.4 44.9 45.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.1 3.9 -0.2 47.3 47.7 2.1 3.3 4.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.2 4.2 -0.5 42.2 43.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.7 2.6 -0.1 48.3 49.3 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.9 4.8 -0.6 41.5 43.0 2.1 3.7 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 0.3 1.3 3.1 -0.6 41.3 43.8 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 1.9 2.0 0.1 51.1 51.2 0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.1 5.5 -0.7 41.4 42.8 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------