***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 12.5 12.8 13.5 -1.6 30.7 34.2 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.5 -1.6 31.1 33.9 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.3 13.5 -1.7 30.1 33.6 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.5 5.9 11.2 -1.9 27.7 31.8 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 12.6 12.9 11.6 -2.0 27.5 32.0 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 11.7 12.0 10.5 -2.1 26.6 32.5 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 12.2 12.5 13.5 -1.6 31.2 34.1 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.9 5.2 10.7 -2.0 27.4 33.0 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 12.7 13.2 12.3 -1.9 28.0 32.6 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.8 11.4 -2.0 27.9 33.0 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 12.7 13.0 11.5 -2.0 27.1 32.1 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 12.0 12.3 11.3 -2.0 26.1 32.0 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.7 11.0 -2.1 25.3 31.7 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.5 12.7 -1.7 31.2 35.0 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.9 12.3 11.3 -1.7 28.2 31.9 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.6 11.2 -2.1 26.4 31.8 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.2 -1.6 31.0 33.5 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.7 12.0 11.3 -1.9 29.5 34.6 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.6 -1.6 31.1 34.0 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.4 -1.8 29.6 35.4 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.2 12.9 -1.8 28.8 32.9 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.3 -1.6 31.2 33.7 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.1 13.7 -1.6 31.3 34.4 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.4 12.6 -1.8 30.2 34.4 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.5 11.9 -1.6 30.0 33.7 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.5 11.0 -2.0 24.7 31.9 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.2 12.8 -1.5 31.2 34.6 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 11.8 12.1 11.3 -1.9 27.4 31.6 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 8.9 10.6 -1.8 30.5 35.8 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.7 13.6 -1.6 31.0 34.0 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------