***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 -1.5 24.2 28.3 12.7 13.9 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 11.9 11.7 12.3 -1.5 23.7 27.4 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.3 12.4 -1.6 22.6 26.9 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 6.1 5.9 9.9 -1.7 21.1 25.5 6.8 7.8 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.3 10.6 -1.7 20.8 25.7 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.0 11.8 9.7 -1.7 23.0 28.1 12.6 13.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.3 -1.5 24.4 27.9 12.2 13.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.8 4.7 9.8 -1.6 22.2 27.3 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 12.8 12.6 11.4 -1.7 21.9 26.8 13.5 14.6 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 12.4 12.2 10.4 -1.7 21.5 26.6 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.4 10.5 -1.7 21.0 26.0 13.4 14.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 12.4 12.2 10.4 -1.6 22.0 27.1 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 12.7 12.5 10.3 -1.7 21.9 27.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 12.8 12.6 11.6 -1.7 22.8 27.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.6 11.4 10.5 -1.6 22.3 26.5 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 13.2 13.0 10.3 -1.7 21.5 26.5 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.0 -1.6 23.0 26.5 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.6 11.3 10.2 -1.7 22.5 27.6 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 12.1 11.9 12.5 -1.5 23.7 27.5 12.6 13.7 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.8 9.5 8.6 -1.5 24.5 29.9 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.4 11.9 -1.7 21.9 26.6 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.1 -1.6 23.2 26.8 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.5 -1.5 23.9 27.9 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 13.0 12.7 11.5 -1.7 22.2 26.9 13.6 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 11.7 11.6 10.9 -1.5 23.2 27.5 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.3 10.1 -1.5 22.8 28.5 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 12.4 12.3 11.8 -1.4 24.8 28.9 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 11.8 11.5 10.3 -1.7 20.9 25.4 12.3 13.2 14.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.8 8.6 9.7 -1.6 23.9 29.1 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.5 -1.5 23.9 27.7 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------