***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 19.6 30.5 22.5 194.7 84.2 72.9 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 14.4 18.1 16.7 140.4 75.6 64.7 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 20.1 33.2 23.7 211.8 86.5 76.0 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 19.3 36.1 29.4 240.5 89.0 74.8 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 17.4 36.1 32.6 282.4 92.3 82.2 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 14.0 32.2 31.7 322.0 94.0 84.4 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 11.7 14.6 16.9 140.4 75.5 65.5 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 22.2 46.2 34.2 297.1 93.0 82.7 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.7 32.7 30.9 273.4 92.0 80.0 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 20.2 40.1 34.1 288.2 92.9 82.0 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 16.2 35.1 32.3 308.8 93.5 82.3 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.9 29.2 31.7 311.4 93.6 82.7 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 16.3 37.2 32.6 316.5 94.4 84.6 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 28.9 45.5 27.6 207.9 86.4 77.1 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 16.4 35.2 32.1 259.5 90.6 74.9 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 14.9 32.7 31.0 301.3 93.5 82.6 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.4 12.3 14.6 121.5 71.3 60.3 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 17.9 36.1 35.4 269.8 92.1 83.2 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 19.9 26.8 17.9 153.3 77.9 66.7 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 21.6 40.8 39.2 253.4 90.6 81.9 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 20.2 40.0 27.6 251.1 90.3 77.3 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.2 18.2 15.8 129.9 73.0 61.6 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 21.0 31.5 20.8 176.5 81.8 71.5 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 25.3 48.8 30.6 246.3 90.3 81.2 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 20.8 36.8 27.5 222.0 87.7 78.1 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 17.4 39.0 33.4 311.6 94.0 85.3 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 17.4 26.0 23.6 190.3 83.8 73.7 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 14.6 31.6 31.1 271.4 91.4 77.4 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 24.0 43.9 35.3 253.8 90.7 82.1 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.0 23.1 18.9 159.1 79.0 68.5 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------