***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.0 8.7 80.6 57.6 39.9 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.1 8.3 75.8 55.9 40.1 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.6 9.1 82.0 57.6 41.5 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.5 8.6 70.9 55.1 35.3 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.4 10.9 92.0 62.3 46.9 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.9 14.2 113.7 68.7 52.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.8 8.5 79.2 56.5 41.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.9 11.9 89.6 60.5 46.0 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.8 10.3 87.0 60.0 43.3 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.7 11.6 89.9 60.4 45.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.4 10.6 96.1 64.1 47.6 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.2 10.8 97.0 63.9 48.5 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.8 12.6 107.9 67.2 51.4 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.7 7.7 10.1 74.0 53.0 40.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.2 13.1 99.5 65.2 51.0 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.9 11.6 104.5 66.8 51.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.1 8.1 79.2 57.6 40.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.8 12.3 86.2 58.5 45.3 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.3 8.3 74.7 54.7 39.4 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.6 14.6 75.4 55.1 43.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.2 9.0 83.5 59.3 40.7 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.9 8.4 75.4 55.4 39.6 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.1 8.7 76.5 54.8 40.4 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.1 10.5 83.1 57.4 43.4 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.1 11.1 87.2 61.1 47.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.2 11.5 97.4 64.4 49.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.2 10.1 81.9 58.7 43.2 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.4 11.1 90.8 62.0 44.9 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.1 12.8 79.9 55.8 44.1 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.0 8.7 78.6 56.7 41.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------