***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 13.7 10.1 97.8 64.9 46.0 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.9 12.5 10.1 97.0 64.1 43.6 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.2 13.6 10.8 103.0 65.8 45.9 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 11.5 10.6 89.2 61.3 42.2 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.7 10.9 96.9 64.0 48.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.0 13.8 107.0 66.8 52.4 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.6 10.0 96.6 64.3 44.8 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 18.4 12.2 93.4 62.2 49.2 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 11.0 99.4 64.8 48.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.6 12.1 96.6 63.2 49.1 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.5 10.4 96.4 63.7 48.4 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.8 10.7 94.3 63.1 49.4 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.1 11.9 100.8 64.9 51.1 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.8 17.9 12.0 92.1 61.8 45.5 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.4 13.9 104.8 66.7 47.8 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.5 11.0 100.6 65.1 51.0 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.8 9.0 87.5 60.8 42.0 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 14.1 13.3 95.3 62.0 48.6 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.5 10.2 96.8 63.8 43.7 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.7 15.0 85.3 58.5 47.0 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.3 10.7 10.1 98.0 64.4 44.7 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.4 9.8 9.4 88.8 61.0 43.1 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.6 14.3 10.5 96.5 63.5 44.7 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 13.1 12.1 97.8 63.5 46.8 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.6 11.1 94.8 63.5 47.0 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.9 11.7 99.8 65.3 50.8 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 11.8 10.6 93.3 63.0 45.8 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.4 12.3 98.9 64.6 46.6 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 19.0 13.8 90.1 60.1 47.4 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.7 10.5 101.1 65.4 45.3 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------