***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.3 9.4 106.0 67.0 47.8 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.8 9.4 116.0 69.8 50.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.2 8.9 102.6 66.1 47.8 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.1 9.7 90.8 62.0 43.9 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.3 9.4 90.7 62.5 46.9 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.9 10.1 87.4 62.0 48.0 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.2 14.0 9.6 117.6 70.7 52.0 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.0 9.4 84.0 60.6 47.8 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.6 9.3 89.7 62.1 46.3 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.4 9.6 87.1 61.4 47.5 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.9 8.6 86.3 61.1 46.6 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 8.3 81.7 59.9 46.1 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.6 9.2 84.5 60.8 47.0 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.8 14.1 9.6 88.5 61.8 48.7 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.8 11.3 102.4 65.6 47.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.3 8.8 86.3 61.2 46.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 15.8 9.8 125.2 72.2 53.3 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.6 10.2 86.2 60.6 47.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 13.8 9.1 112.8 68.7 49.6 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.7 12.4 84.7 60.5 48.8 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.9 8.8 91.2 62.4 45.0 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.4 18.0 10.5 125.9 72.2 54.5 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 12.1 8.9 104.4 66.3 49.5 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.0 9.4 90.0 62.1 47.9 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.5 10.8 103.4 66.1 48.1 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.8 9.2 85.8 61.8 47.5 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.9 10.7 109.4 67.8 49.0 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.4 10.0 92.6 62.5 45.6 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.7 10.8 85.1 60.4 48.2 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.1 13.3 9.3 112.7 69.1 49.5 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------