***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.1 7.8 -0.8 37.2 38.2 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.1 7.5 -0.6 40.6 41.5 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.9 7.8 -0.9 35.2 36.5 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.4 1.9 5.2 -0.8 36.3 37.6 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.2 6.3 -0.9 35.0 36.4 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.4 -1.1 31.1 32.7 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 6.1 5.4 7.7 -0.5 42.8 43.5 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 3.7 -1.2 31.0 32.8 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.5 4.4 5.5 -1.4 25.8 28.2 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.7 4.3 -1.2 30.6 32.7 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.1 5.4 -1.2 29.7 31.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.3 4.6 -1.2 30.5 32.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 3.8 4.4 -1.2 30.0 32.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.6 -1.0 32.8 34.8 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.3 6.3 -1.1 30.0 31.7 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.1 -1.0 33.6 35.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 6.0 5.8 7.7 0.0 49.8 49.9 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 3.7 4.1 -1.0 34.1 35.7 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.0 7.3 -0.8 37.1 38.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.3 0.7 2.8 -1.1 32.8 34.3 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.4 4.5 7.0 -1.0 32.3 34.1 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 5.4 5.0 7.8 -0.2 47.5 48.0 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.5 6.9 -1.1 31.1 32.7 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.9 4.3 5.6 -1.1 32.2 34.1 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.4 7.3 -0.8 36.9 38.0 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 -1.3 28.6 30.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.8 5.8 7.7 -0.6 40.4 41.1 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.3 5.3 -1.0 32.7 34.5 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.4 3.2 -1.2 30.6 32.5 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.2 7.6 -0.8 37.2 38.3 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------