***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 16.1 15.4 16.7 -0.4 45.6 46.1 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.2 15.1 16.4 -0.8 41.7 42.6 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 16.6 15.9 17.1 -0.5 45.1 45.6 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 9.9 10.1 14.5 0.5 54.9 54.9 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 16.9 16.4 15.8 -0.2 47.8 48.2 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 16.5 16.5 14.9 0.2 51.9 52.1 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.1 15.1 16.2 -0.8 41.5 42.4 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 8.5 8.1 14.7 -0.2 47.9 48.2 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 17.1 16.5 16.4 -0.5 45.4 45.8 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 16.5 16.2 15.6 -0.1 49.1 49.4 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 17.1 16.5 16.4 -0.3 47.0 47.3 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 16.9 16.2 15.1 -0.5 45.3 45.8 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 17.6 16.7 15.8 -0.7 43.2 43.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 17.0 16.5 17.0 0.0 49.7 50.0 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 15.6 15.2 16.0 -0.2 47.8 48.2 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 18.0 17.4 15.7 -0.4 46.1 46.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.8 14.9 16.0 -0.5 43.8 44.6 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 15.8 15.4 15.1 -0.1 48.7 49.0 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.2 15.1 16.7 -0.8 42.0 42.8 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 13.6 13.5 13.7 0.0 50.2 50.4 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 16.8 16.3 17.2 -0.3 47.2 47.5 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 16.3 15.7 16.5 -0.3 46.6 47.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 16.5 15.5 16.9 -0.7 43.2 43.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 17.1 16.5 16.7 -0.2 47.9 48.2 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 16.0 15.6 16.1 -0.1 48.4 48.8 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 17.1 16.5 14.4 -0.5 44.5 45.0 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 16.6 15.9 16.2 -0.4 45.2 45.8 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 15.9 16.0 15.4 0.3 53.3 53.3 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 12.7 12.4 14.6 -0.1 48.9 49.2 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 16.1 15.1 16.5 -0.8 41.6 42.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------