***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 12.7 16.3 16.1 1.0 61.7 58.1 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.8 16.1 0.9 60.9 57.6 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.7 16.6 1.0 61.2 57.7 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.5 13.4 1.0 62.0 58.2 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.6 15.0 1.0 61.1 57.7 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.3 14.2 1.3 63.7 59.7 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.0 62.2 58.6 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.6 14.4 1.3 63.6 59.6 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.9 15.8 1.0 61.3 58.0 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.9 15.2 1.4 64.1 59.9 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.8 15.5 1.0 60.5 57.4 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.4 14.8 1.0 61.0 57.7 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.7 15.0 0.9 60.0 57.0 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.9 16.7 1.7 67.4 61.9 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 12.5 15.2 14.5 0.7 59.4 56.9 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 14.9 0.9 60.1 57.0 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.2 15.9 1.1 63.8 59.5 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.3 15.2 1.7 66.2 61.6 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.1 16.4 0.9 60.7 57.4 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 14.1 13.4 1.6 66.5 61.7 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.7 16.4 1.1 62.3 58.4 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.4 16.2 1.3 65.5 60.5 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.3 16.8 1.1 61.8 58.1 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.7 16.5 1.6 65.7 60.9 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.6 15.8 15.0 1.0 62.1 58.1 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.3 14.2 1.0 61.8 58.5 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.2 16.4 15.7 1.1 62.9 58.8 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.0 14.1 1.0 61.1 57.7 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.4 14.6 1.7 66.4 61.8 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.6 16.1 0.9 60.1 57.1 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------