***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.1 12.5 0.1 51.2 51.2 11.1 13.0 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.7 12.4 0.0 49.9 50.6 11.0 12.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.4 12.9 0.0 50.0 50.4 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.3 10.4 0.4 53.7 53.5 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.4 11.3 0.2 52.3 52.1 11.3 13.1 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.5 10.8 0.7 56.0 55.4 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.6 12.4 0.1 50.9 51.3 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 10.9 0.3 53.1 53.0 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.4 13.9 11.9 0.2 52.0 51.9 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.5 11.4 0.3 52.9 52.7 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.8 11.5 0.2 52.4 52.3 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.6 11.4 0.3 52.5 52.5 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.9 11.1 0.4 53.7 53.5 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.8 12.1 0.1 50.8 51.0 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.6 11.0 0.3 53.6 53.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.4 11.3 0.4 53.6 53.3 12.0 14.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.3 12.2 0.1 50.7 51.2 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 11.4 0.3 52.9 52.7 10.7 12.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.8 12.6 -0.1 49.2 50.0 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.0 9.7 0.4 54.0 53.7 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.6 12.4 0.2 51.7 51.5 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.8 12.2 0.0 49.9 50.6 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.9 12.9 -0.1 48.8 49.5 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.1 12.2 0.2 51.6 51.6 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 11.2 0.3 52.7 52.4 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.9 11.1 0.5 54.8 54.6 11.6 13.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 12.1 0.2 52.3 52.2 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.7 10.8 0.4 54.1 53.8 11.0 12.4 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 10.8 0.3 53.0 52.9 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.6 12.5 0.0 49.8 50.5 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------