***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.8 10.7 -0.6 43.0 46.0 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.4 10.5 -0.8 40.4 43.8 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.9 10.9 -0.7 41.7 44.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.4 8.6 -0.3 46.1 48.1 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.2 9.4 -0.6 43.1 46.2 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.6 8.8 -0.5 44.9 48.4 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.3 10.4 -0.8 40.5 44.1 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.7 8.9 -0.7 42.5 46.1 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.9 11.5 9.9 -0.7 42.2 45.6 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.8 9.4 -0.7 42.4 46.0 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.3 9.5 -0.7 42.0 45.7 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.0 9.3 -0.7 42.2 46.0 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.2 9.0 -0.6 43.1 47.4 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.2 10.2 -0.9 41.4 44.7 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 7.8 9.5 9.3 -0.3 46.4 48.3 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.7 9.3 -0.6 43.3 47.0 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.1 10.3 -0.7 41.5 44.4 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.7 9.3 -0.8 42.2 46.0 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.7 10.0 10.7 -0.8 40.7 43.8 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.9 8.3 7.7 -0.7 43.1 47.0 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.1 10.4 -0.7 42.5 45.7 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.8 10.4 -0.6 42.8 45.0 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.0 11.0 -0.8 41.0 43.9 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.6 10.1 -0.8 41.6 45.1 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.5 10.2 9.4 -0.5 44.2 47.0 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.7 9.0 -0.4 44.7 48.6 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.8 10.2 -0.5 43.5 46.6 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.8 9.0 -0.3 46.5 48.4 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.6 8.8 -0.8 42.2 46.2 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.5 -0.8 40.7 44.1 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------