***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.9 14.0 0.0 50.6 50.3 12.7 13.9 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.3 13.9 -0.2 47.2 47.8 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.2 14.4 0.0 49.3 49.2 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.2 11.7 0.4 56.4 55.1 6.8 7.8 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.4 12.9 0.1 51.7 51.3 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.2 12.2 0.4 56.7 55.3 12.6 13.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.1 13.8 -0.1 48.1 48.6 12.2 13.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.6 12.2 0.2 52.9 52.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 13.5 0.0 50.3 50.0 13.5 14.6 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.3 12.9 0.2 53.5 52.6 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 13.2 0.1 50.9 50.8 13.4 14.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 12.7 0.0 50.5 50.5 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 12.7 0.0 50.0 50.3 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.8 14.0 0.2 53.7 52.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 12.7 0.2 52.7 52.4 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.2 12.8 0.1 51.3 51.2 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.9 13.6 0.0 49.9 49.8 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.5 12.7 0.3 54.1 52.9 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.5 14.1 -0.2 47.0 47.5 12.6 13.7 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.7 11.1 0.3 55.6 54.2 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.4 14.1 0.1 51.4 50.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.6 13.8 0.1 51.8 51.1 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.7 14.4 -0.1 47.9 47.9 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.9 13.9 0.2 52.7 51.7 13.6 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.5 12.9 0.2 52.9 52.1 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 12.1 0.1 52.3 52.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.1 13.6 0.1 51.5 51.1 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.5 12.3 0.3 55.8 54.7 12.3 13.2 14.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.8 12.2 0.3 54.3 53.1 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.2 13.9 -0.2 46.9 47.5 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------