***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.5 8.0 70.4 53.8 40.4 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.9 8.7 83.4 59.1 45.4 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.9 7.6 70.8 54.4 39.9 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.1 49.0 44.3 31.5 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.6 7.1 6.3 56.7 47.9 34.1 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.1 3.2 4.0 36.5 35.8 23.5 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.5 8.4 82.7 58.9 45.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 4.2 6.7 5.8 44.6 39.6 28.7 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 3.4 7.3 6.6 59.7 48.9 35.7 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 4.2 7.8 6.5 53.2 44.5 32.6 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.8 5.8 50.5 44.9 31.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.6 5.0 43.5 39.9 27.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.4 4.9 41.0 39.5 27.6 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.5 13.9 8.5 68.5 53.0 39.2 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.3 3.7 4.3 38.2 39.9 27.2 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.9 5.3 45.2 42.3 29.2 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.3 8.8 88.0 60.5 47.1 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.2 6.2 7.1 55.3 45.0 33.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.9 8.8 82.2 58.8 44.6 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 4.0 5.8 6.1 42.3 37.7 27.7 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.8 8.8 7.0 62.0 50.5 36.8 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.0 9.5 93.0 62.4 48.6 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.4 8.6 77.8 57.5 42.7 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.3 9.9 7.5 63.7 50.8 37.1 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.1 6.9 56.9 48.4 35.4 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.3 3.2 27.9 31.4 20.8 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.4 7.7 66.5 52.6 39.2 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.4 4.1 5.0 43.3 41.5 29.0 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.7 8.3 7.1 53.5 43.4 32.3 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.3 8.3 78.1 57.4 43.7 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------