***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.0 9.8 82.7 57.9 43.4 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.2 8.3 80.8 56.3 40.9 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.4 9.5 80.0 56.7 44.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.8 10.5 80.3 56.7 43.2 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.5 5.8 9.4 76.7 54.7 42.7 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.1 8.3 69.1 52.0 39.4 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.0 8.5 83.1 57.5 41.4 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.6 8.8 68.0 50.6 40.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.0 9.6 79.2 55.8 42.9 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.1 9.4 73.7 53.3 42.7 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.7 9.3 76.9 54.6 44.5 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.8 8.2 68.4 50.7 40.4 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.3 5.5 9.4 77.7 56.6 45.7 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.0 11.2 76.7 54.1 42.3 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.6 10.4 79.8 57.1 43.5 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.0 9.5 80.7 57.3 45.5 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.4 8.5 86.1 58.4 42.6 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.1 9.5 70.6 51.1 40.9 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.4 8.4 78.7 55.3 40.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.4 13.3 78.2 54.1 44.9 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.1 5.7 9.6 80.5 57.0 43.5 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.1 8.7 81.1 56.1 42.0 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.9 8.8 75.4 53.9 41.7 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.3 10.1 76.2 54.3 43.2 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.8 11.6 86.0 59.4 46.2 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.0 9.6 73.8 53.8 43.0 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.0 10.5 82.5 57.7 44.2 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.6 77.5 55.6 41.9 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 10.0 10.7 73.5 52.0 42.4 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.8 4.9 8.6 78.8 55.9 41.4 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------