***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.0 11.5 97.2 63.3 49.2 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.0 12.3 10.9 97.8 63.6 48.4 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.0 12.1 100.5 64.4 50.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.5 13.6 13.7 103.9 65.4 50.1 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.0 13.5 109.8 67.2 53.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.8 12.0 96.6 62.8 48.8 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.0 10.2 10.7 97.0 63.4 47.8 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 21.6 14.4 107.4 66.3 51.0 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.7 14.1 111.6 67.6 54.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.9 14.7 109.1 66.6 52.5 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.4 12.6 105.9 66.1 52.0 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.6 13.8 12.6 104.6 65.7 50.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.2 13.1 103.4 65.2 50.6 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.0 21.4 16.6 112.6 67.9 53.0 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.4 14.3 104.7 66.4 49.8 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.2 12.1 100.7 64.4 49.9 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.3 11.7 11.7 104.1 65.8 49.1 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 16.2 15.5 109.3 66.5 51.7 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.4 11.4 98.5 63.6 48.8 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 18.2 19.0 110.4 67.1 52.0 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.3 12.9 106.3 66.0 52.8 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.4 11.2 12.5 102.4 64.8 48.9 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.2 14.9 12.5 103.0 65.0 50.2 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.3 14.7 107.5 66.3 52.1 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.4 13.4 103.5 65.2 52.0 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 11.3 13.7 106.8 66.6 49.3 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 12.2 12.2 99.7 64.1 50.4 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 9.5 13.0 102.0 65.1 49.3 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 23.8 16.8 112.5 67.6 52.3 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.9 11.0 95.8 63.0 48.3 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------