***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.6 11.4 92.3 61.6 46.8 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.5 9.7 89.5 61.0 44.7 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.6 12.7 11.6 93.6 62.2 47.7 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.8 13.2 91.2 61.4 46.5 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.6 13.3 97.2 63.4 48.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.1 12.6 96.0 62.7 46.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.7 9.8 91.4 61.5 45.6 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.7 14.8 101.2 64.5 50.1 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.4 13.9 99.3 64.3 49.9 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.9 14.9 101.6 64.8 50.7 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.4 13.4 101.5 64.8 48.9 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.7 13.5 102.0 64.8 48.9 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.1 13.8 100.5 64.4 48.3 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.8 15.4 14.9 101.4 64.7 51.3 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 12.5 82.9 59.2 45.4 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.3 13.1 98.5 63.8 47.1 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.3 9.1 84.1 58.9 43.4 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 12.1 15.4 102.3 64.8 51.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.9 10.1 90.6 61.3 45.5 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.8 18.0 96.2 62.7 51.4 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.2 12.8 96.0 63.2 48.6 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.1 9.7 83.7 58.3 43.4 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.7 11.2 93.9 62.2 47.2 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.1 14.2 101.2 64.9 51.3 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.9 13.0 92.1 61.8 47.4 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.3 13.9 96.3 63.2 47.5 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.1 12.0 93.9 62.3 47.4 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.0 12.6 91.2 61.7 46.1 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 17.8 16.2 101.4 64.4 52.2 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.7 10.3 91.5 61.5 45.9 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------