***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 44.8 37.4 40.6 85.9 49.2 45.3 25.9 38.2 52.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 41.3 35.3 37.7 88.1 51.0 46.8 21.8 34.5 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.8 40.9 40.7 86.7 49.9 46.4 27.7 40.9 56.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 51.5 41.2 43.5 81.8 46.3 43.3 30.9 44.4 60.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 45.1 39.6 42.5 86.1 49.4 46.4 29.3 40.0 51.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 18.9 22.4 37.0 76.1 40.1 38.5 18.6 28.9 41.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 37.9 32.2 37.5 88.8 51.5 47.0 19.8 31.1 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 61.1 46.5 43.8 81.1 44.2 42.6 36.1 52.1 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 40.9 36.6 44.2 88.7 50.7 47.8 26.0 36.2 47.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 48.4 40.4 45.5 85.4 47.5 45.4 30.1 42.2 56.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 42.0 34.7 41.2 84.5 47.8 45.2 25.3 36.2 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 42.3 31.6 39.3 80.6 44.5 42.5 24.0 35.3 48.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.4 32.6 41.2 81.7 45.0 42.7 24.2 36.5 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 67.1 59.2 51.2 90.7 51.2 47.7 41.8 58.1 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 38.3 27.3 41.6 78.2 45.2 41.3 19.2 31.1 46.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 39.3 29.2 40.0 82.0 46.0 43.5 21.0 32.1 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 41.4 36.2 38.0 90.9 52.9 48.3 21.3 33.7 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 48.9 41.6 47.6 85.4 47.3 45.7 31.8 43.3 56.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 47.7 39.7 38.7 87.8 50.4 46.6 24.7 39.4 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.6 45.4 56.3 83.9 45.7 44.0 34.9 49.2 65.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.3 39.1 42.4 86.9 49.8 46.6 27.5 39.3 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 47.3 40.7 40.3 90.3 51.6 47.6 25.6 39.4 56.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 49.4 41.8 41.0 87.8 50.2 46.7 27.3 41.6 58.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 53.9 46.4 46.5 88.2 49.9 47.2 32.4 46.7 63.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 44.3 35.4 44.8 85.3 48.4 45.0 23.8 36.7 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.5 28.6 40.4 78.3 42.5 40.2 22.1 34.3 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 40.5 32.8 42.4 86.0 49.0 45.1 21.9 33.7 48.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 38.0 27.5 40.3 79.8 45.2 42.1 19.3 31.0 45.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 70.0 60.7 50.7 86.5 47.8 46.1 47.6 62.9 79.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 41.3 34.6 38.2 86.3 49.9 45.8 22.1 34.6 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------