***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.2 7.9 -0.4 43.1 45.2 4.4 5.7 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 8.2 0.2 54.1 54.2 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.4 7.8 -0.2 46.5 47.9 6.4 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 3.1 2.9 5.5 0.1 52.0 52.1 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.1 5.9 0.0 50.4 50.8 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.6 3.1 -0.7 37.2 39.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.0 8.2 0.3 55.0 54.9 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.0 4.0 -0.5 40.9 42.4 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 6.4 6.1 6.3 0.0 50.2 50.7 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.4 4.8 -0.2 46.0 46.8 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.6 4.9 5.1 -0.3 44.5 45.5 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.8 4.3 -0.6 39.7 41.4 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.3 4.0 -0.6 40.2 42.0 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 6.3 6.3 6.7 0.3 54.5 54.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.4 6.6 0.2 53.3 53.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.4 5.7 4.5 -0.4 43.4 44.8 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.3 8.3 0.6 60.1 58.9 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 5.0 4.4 4.1 -0.2 46.7 47.3 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.8 8.0 0.2 53.0 53.2 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.0 2.3 -0.6 39.7 41.2 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.5 7.4 -0.1 48.3 49.4 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.7 8.3 0.6 59.7 58.6 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.7 7.7 0.2 53.0 53.3 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.2 6.1 0.0 50.0 50.5 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.7 6.7 -0.3 44.7 46.1 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.9 4.3 -0.4 42.9 44.2 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.8 7.2 -0.3 45.1 46.6 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.4 4.3 5.9 0.2 53.0 53.1 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 4.1 3.3 3.4 -0.3 44.5 45.4 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.8 8.1 0.0 49.8 50.7 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------