***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.7 -1.1 34.9 40.6 2.4 4.0 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.0 4.5 -0.9 36.9 41.5 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.3 4.4 -1.0 35.9 41.4 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -1.9 -1.0 2.2 -0.9 35.9 41.6 -1.3 0.2 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.6 2.3 -1.0 34.4 40.8 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 0.3 0.8 0.8 -1.0 34.1 41.6 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.1 4.4 -1.0 36.5 41.3 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -3.1 1.3 -1.1 33.8 41.3 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.5 3.0 -1.1 33.7 40.2 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.2 1.8 -1.1 33.7 40.4 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 1.2 1.9 2.1 -1.0 34.9 41.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 0.2 0.7 1.8 -1.1 33.5 40.9 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 0.5 0.9 1.3 -1.2 32.0 39.6 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.2 3.1 -0.9 36.6 42.0 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.5 2.8 -0.8 37.6 42.6 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.4 1.7 -1.0 34.0 40.7 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.5 4.3 -0.9 37.9 41.9 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 0.8 1.3 -1.1 34.0 40.9 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.4 4.4 -0.9 37.1 41.8 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -2.5 -2.3 0.0 -1.2 33.1 41.7 -2.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.4 2.1 3.9 -1.1 34.3 40.5 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.1 4.3 -0.9 37.3 41.3 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.5 4.2 -0.9 37.2 42.1 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.1 2.9 -1.0 35.7 41.6 1.9 3.1 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.4 3.0 -1.0 34.9 41.0 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.0 1.5 -1.3 29.5 38.5 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.1 1.9 3.8 -1.1 34.4 40.5 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -0.1 0.8 2.4 -0.9 36.6 42.1 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 0.1 0.9 -1.1 35.3 42.1 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.4 4.5 -1.0 36.3 41.3 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------