***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.5 3.3 -0.7 40.9 43.0 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.0 1.8 3.0 -0.6 42.2 44.3 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.8 3.0 -0.6 42.2 44.3 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -2.7 -1.2 0.9 -0.4 43.9 45.4 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 0.2 1.4 1.1 -0.5 43.9 45.5 0.6 1.9 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 42.7 46.1 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.9 -0.7 41.4 43.5 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.0 0.0 -0.4 45.3 47.0 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 0.8 2.1 1.8 -0.5 44.1 45.5 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.6 0.6 -0.4 44.9 46.4 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.2 1.0 -0.4 45.3 46.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.5 0.6 -0.4 44.4 46.2 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.6 42.3 45.0 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.7 1.7 -0.4 45.1 46.8 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -0.1 1.2 1.5 -0.4 44.7 45.9 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.9 1.9 0.5 -0.5 43.8 45.9 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.7 2.9 -0.5 43.2 44.9 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.4 44.7 46.5 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.9 2.9 -0.5 42.8 45.0 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -2.6 -1.3 -0.5 44.2 46.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 0.7 2.0 2.6 -0.5 43.0 44.7 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.5 2.8 -0.5 44.0 45.7 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.0 2.7 -0.4 43.7 45.9 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.5 1.5 -0.4 44.6 46.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.0 1.7 -0.5 43.1 44.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.8 40.2 44.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.4 2.5 -0.7 41.3 43.3 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -1.1 0.2 1.1 -0.4 44.7 46.2 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 1.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 45.2 47.0 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.1 -0.7 41.4 43.7 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------