***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.0 3.7 5.8 -0.5 39.1 43.8 3.4 4.3 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.6 5.7 -0.2 45.3 48.1 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.6 5.6 -0.3 42.5 45.9 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.7 3.4 -0.2 45.3 47.5 0.1 1.0 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.0 3.6 -0.2 44.4 46.8 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.1 1.8 -0.5 37.9 44.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.5 5.7 -0.2 44.5 47.7 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 2.3 -0.4 40.6 44.7 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.3 -0.2 44.5 46.7 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.5 3.0 -0.3 42.9 45.7 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.1 3.3 -0.3 42.9 45.7 2.6 3.4 4.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.1 2.8 -0.4 38.9 43.6 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.4 -0.5 36.8 42.8 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.5 4.4 0.0 49.5 50.5 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.5 4.0 -0.1 47.0 48.7 2.8 3.6 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.1 3.7 2.8 -0.4 40.6 44.8 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.8 5.7 -0.1 48.7 50.6 3.0 3.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.2 2.5 -0.3 43.4 46.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.7 5.7 -0.2 46.1 48.6 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 1.0 -0.5 39.1 44.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.5 5.2 -0.3 42.8 45.9 3.1 3.9 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.3 5.7 0.0 49.7 51.2 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.8 5.5 -0.1 48.0 49.7 3.1 3.9 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.4 4.1 -0.1 46.2 48.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.8 4.3 -0.3 41.4 45.2 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.6 2.6 -0.6 34.9 42.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.8 5.0 -0.4 40.3 44.6 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.2 3.6 -0.1 46.5 48.5 1.6 2.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.7 2.0 -0.3 43.5 46.5 1.1 2.1 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.8 5.8 -0.3 42.7 46.4 3.2 4.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------