***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.8 9.6 -0.5 44.3 46.0 9.5 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.8 9.6 -0.3 46.3 47.2 8.3 10.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.9 9.7 -0.4 45.0 46.3 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.1 7.7 -0.5 44.5 46.5 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.0 8.1 -0.5 44.2 46.0 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.6 10.1 7.1 -0.9 41.4 44.2 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.8 9.7 9.5 -0.3 46.1 47.2 8.2 10.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.8 7.3 -0.5 44.9 46.5 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.6 11.4 8.7 -0.5 44.6 46.0 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.8 8.0 -0.5 45.1 46.4 9.4 11.3 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.4 11.2 7.9 -0.6 44.1 45.8 9.9 11.9 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.9 7.7 -0.6 43.6 45.6 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.8 7.4 -0.8 41.7 44.5 9.9 11.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.8 9.2 -0.2 47.8 48.0 9.9 12.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.4 9.0 8.0 -0.4 45.7 47.6 7.8 9.4 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.5 7.6 -0.7 42.7 45.0 10.3 12.3 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.5 9.4 -0.2 48.1 48.5 8.0 9.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 10.0 7.8 -0.4 46.4 47.3 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.4 9.7 -0.3 46.4 47.2 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.5 6.2 -0.3 46.8 48.1 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.3 11.0 9.2 -0.5 44.3 45.8 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.3 9.6 -0.1 48.8 48.8 8.5 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.4 9.8 -0.3 46.7 47.3 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.9 9.0 -0.3 46.4 47.2 10.3 12.4 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.4 10.0 8.2 -0.5 44.6 46.4 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.2 7.3 -0.8 40.9 44.5 9.4 11.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.8 9.0 -0.5 44.7 46.4 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.3 7.9 -0.5 44.4 46.4 8.4 9.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.9 7.2 -0.3 47.1 48.0 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.9 9.7 -0.4 45.4 46.6 8.5 10.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------