***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 12.1 13.0 12.8 -0.5 40.0 45.0 12.5 13.7 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 11.8 12.8 12.8 -0.3 43.3 46.9 12.2 13.2 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 12.6 13.6 13.1 -0.4 42.8 46.6 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.3 11.0 -0.3 44.6 48.1 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.6 11.6 -0.4 42.6 46.8 12.9 14.1 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.6 10.3 -0.8 35.0 42.2 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.6 12.7 -0.4 41.8 46.0 12.0 13.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.7 10.7 -0.5 41.0 45.6 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.0 12.4 -0.3 43.6 47.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.4 11.5 -0.4 42.1 46.2 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.8 11.5 -0.4 41.4 46.1 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.3 11.2 -0.6 38.8 44.4 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.8 13.3 10.8 -0.8 34.2 41.7 13.2 14.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 12.9 14.1 12.6 -0.2 46.0 48.2 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.6 11.5 -0.1 48.2 50.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 13.4 14.1 11.1 -0.6 38.2 44.2 13.7 14.9 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.4 12.6 -0.2 45.7 48.4 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.5 11.2 -0.4 42.1 45.9 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 12.0 13.1 13.0 -0.3 44.4 47.5 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.5 9.4 -0.5 41.1 45.3 9.9 11.1 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.7 12.8 -0.4 42.8 46.7 13.0 14.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 11.9 13.2 12.8 -0.1 47.6 49.4 12.2 13.4 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.4 13.2 -0.2 45.8 48.3 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.2 12.4 -0.3 44.1 47.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.6 11.6 -0.4 41.5 46.2 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.6 12.8 10.5 -0.9 32.2 40.4 12.8 13.9 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.4 13.2 12.2 -0.5 39.5 44.9 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.8 11.4 -0.2 45.2 48.5 12.1 13.0 13.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.8 10.5 -0.4 42.4 46.1 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.7 12.9 -0.4 41.8 46.0 12.1 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------