***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.7 13.0 11.7 105.5 65.0 56.8 3.0 7.1 13.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 7.8 12.0 12.8 111.9 67.6 61.2 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.3 14.2 11.9 109.2 66.1 59.1 3.5 7.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.2 9.9 90.9 58.5 48.7 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.5 11.4 111.1 66.3 56.5 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.4 11.5 129.2 72.6 54.9 2.1 4.8 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.7 9.3 12.4 106.2 65.7 59.0 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 19.7 13.0 133.1 73.4 61.3 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.0 12.3 12.1 115.0 67.6 59.3 3.6 7.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.1 17.4 13.4 127.9 71.8 61.7 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.3 13.2 11.3 126.4 71.4 58.7 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.7 13.0 11.5 136.8 74.5 60.8 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.1 14.3 11.9 136.0 74.4 58.5 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.5 22.9 14.7 117.0 68.4 61.9 5.8 11.8 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.6 8.6 77.2 54.5 44.8 2.3 5.4 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.4 11.2 10.7 123.0 70.4 55.7 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 6.6 9.4 13.0 103.9 65.4 58.4 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 9.3 15.6 14.9 127.6 71.9 62.7 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 10.2 16.4 13.1 114.3 68.1 61.9 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.7 16.0 14.8 112.9 66.5 57.1 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.3 14.4 12.0 113.0 67.2 59.2 3.6 7.7 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.8 13.1 14.1 109.7 66.9 59.6 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 10.6 16.4 13.2 113.5 67.6 61.4 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 19.9 14.3 123.8 70.7 62.6 3.3 8.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.3 12.7 12.6 106.9 65.0 57.1 2.6 6.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.9 10.7 120.8 70.3 53.1 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.7 12.3 13.2 109.9 66.4 58.6 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 9.2 92.1 59.1 46.8 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.7 20.7 15.3 123.1 70.2 61.8 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 8.6 12.8 12.4 110.5 66.9 60.5 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------