***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.0 7.8 64.8 51.4 37.8 2.4 4.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.4 8.1 65.9 52.4 39.8 2.0 4.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.7 8.4 69.8 53.8 42.0 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.2 8.2 68.2 53.8 39.9 2.9 5.4 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.2 8.2 71.9 54.7 39.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.0 9.9 81.7 57.9 43.1 2.2 3.9 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.6 8.4 67.8 53.0 38.9 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.6 10.4 96.6 63.1 46.4 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.5 9.1 79.7 57.4 44.0 2.9 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.5 10.3 89.2 60.2 45.0 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.6 83.6 59.1 43.0 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.0 95.0 63.1 46.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.6 9.4 86.7 60.2 43.5 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.1 10.6 73.7 55.0 42.5 3.9 7.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.5 7.9 60.6 50.3 39.0 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.7 8.9 84.2 59.3 43.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.6 62.9 50.5 34.5 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.4 12.1 94.1 61.2 46.8 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.8 8.3 67.1 53.0 41.3 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.0 15.7 103.9 64.9 48.7 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.3 8.5 74.8 56.2 42.4 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.6 7.8 62.3 50.3 36.6 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.7 8.9 69.8 54.2 42.4 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.0 10.6 83.1 58.1 45.3 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.0 9.6 72.6 54.9 42.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.8 8.8 83.5 59.4 42.9 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 4.9 9.7 73.3 55.2 42.2 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.7 65.2 52.3 38.3 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 13.3 13.7 99.5 63.4 48.6 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.6 8.4 67.9 53.2 41.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------