***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 9.9 81.3 56.7 45.5 4.6 8.5 14.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.3 10.8 91.3 60.3 47.9 3.7 7.7 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 10.1 84.7 57.6 46.7 4.2 8.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.9 11.7 87.8 59.1 46.2 3.5 8.2 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.1 11.9 92.0 60.9 48.2 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 12.5 84.8 58.2 46.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.4 11.0 89.9 59.5 47.6 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.2 12.9 92.5 61.3 49.6 4.7 11.0 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.1 12.0 91.2 60.7 49.7 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.6 12.9 91.6 60.6 49.1 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.3 11.7 93.8 61.9 48.4 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.6 11.3 92.1 61.7 48.8 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.1 11.7 87.8 59.7 47.1 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.1 15.8 13.3 92.0 59.8 49.3 6.7 12.0 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.1 11.3 78.7 56.2 44.0 2.6 6.1 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.3 11.4 89.3 60.0 46.7 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.6 12.0 100.5 63.9 50.5 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 12.1 13.9 89.6 59.0 48.7 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.9 10.6 92.1 60.5 48.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.0 17.7 92.8 60.8 51.1 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.4 10.8 87.2 59.1 48.5 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.0 12.7 107.8 66.1 52.8 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.0 10.7 91.1 59.8 48.1 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.6 12.4 88.6 58.6 48.0 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.6 11.6 85.5 58.0 47.4 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.6 12.4 91.9 61.7 50.6 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.4 11.2 83.4 57.0 46.4 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.0 11.2 82.2 57.5 44.6 2.5 5.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.7 14.9 87.7 58.4 48.9 6.9 13.3 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.2 10.4 87.3 58.3 46.4 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------