***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 26.2 34.2 36.6 78.2 42.9 39.5 28.1 39.3 52.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.2 30.4 38.3 83.0 45.3 41.4 22.0 34.1 48.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 28.2 38.1 38.3 82.4 44.9 41.3 29.2 42.3 57.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 31.3 38.6 38.7 76.9 40.7 38.7 33.0 45.9 61.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 30.1 39.6 40.8 84.7 46.0 42.9 31.8 42.3 53.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.6 30.7 44.1 88.7 50.3 45.7 20.4 30.4 42.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.2 27.2 38.3 81.8 44.7 40.8 20.0 30.8 43.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 64.9 58.8 45.5 93.9 52.7 48.7 40.6 55.8 74.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.9 37.3 42.9 88.8 48.6 45.1 28.4 38.2 49.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 31.7 45.6 46.4 92.7 51.5 47.6 32.9 44.6 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 26.9 38.6 40.2 90.1 50.5 46.4 27.5 38.3 50.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.1 40.5 39.8 92.7 52.5 48.1 27.3 38.7 51.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.2 40.3 42.1 90.4 52.3 47.5 27.0 38.7 52.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 42.1 56.0 48.4 88.2 47.6 44.3 42.4 58.6 76.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 18.9 22.6 36.5 68.6 35.0 33.8 21.2 33.3 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.7 33.8 39.9 88.2 49.8 45.6 22.8 33.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.5 30.4 39.0 84.0 45.4 40.9 22.0 33.8 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 32.6 46.8 51.6 94.3 52.0 48.2 33.8 45.3 58.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 25.7 35.4 39.0 84.2 46.0 42.3 25.3 39.1 55.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 60.1 53.2 60.2 92.5 51.0 47.7 38.5 52.4 68.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 27.0 37.8 39.7 85.4 46.8 42.9 28.2 40.2 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.8 36.3 41.4 86.8 46.7 42.4 25.9 38.9 54.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.1 37.9 40.5 84.9 46.1 42.6 27.8 41.1 57.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 33.8 48.6 47.1 91.3 50.6 46.5 34.2 48.1 64.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 24.4 32.9 42.1 80.9 44.0 41.2 24.9 37.6 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 44.5 37.7 40.5 87.8 49.7 45.4 26.3 37.9 51.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 22.7 31.6 41.8 81.3 44.9 41.5 23.9 35.2 48.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 21.0 26.4 37.1 74.7 39.2 37.4 22.6 33.8 47.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 73.4 66.9 54.8 93.1 51.5 48.0 50.8 65.6 82.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.7 30.4 38.0 82.1 45.0 41.3 22.1 34.0 48.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------