***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 10.3 10.8 3.0 86.8 84.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.4 11.2 3.8 92.4 90.9 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 9.9 11.2 10.5 3.0 87.6 86.3 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 5.0 6.3 7.9 2.6 85.1 81.7 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 6.8 7.7 8.4 2.5 83.3 81.0 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 5.9 6.2 5.6 1.8 76.0 74.6 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 7.8 10.0 11.3 3.9 92.3 90.3 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 2.7 3.3 6.8 2.4 81.5 80.5 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 8.0 8.6 8.5 2.3 81.2 79.6 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 7.4 8.0 7.7 2.5 82.8 81.6 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 2.0 78.1 76.5 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 6.1 6.4 7.0 2.0 77.9 76.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.3 6.4 1.6 71.9 70.7 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 8.1 9.4 9.6 3.3 88.0 87.0 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 6.6 7.1 8.1 1.9 80.6 77.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 7.6 7.9 6.9 1.8 76.1 74.6 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.8 10.5 11.6 4.5 94.6 92.8 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 6.5 7.1 7.0 2.6 82.1 81.2 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.9 9.7 10.9 3.5 91.2 90.0 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 3.5 3.8 5.2 2.2 78.6 77.7 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 7.5 8.4 9.9 2.6 84.2 82.3 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.6 11.5 4.2 94.1 92.7 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 7.5 8.9 10.3 3.1 89.0 88.1 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 7.2 8.1 8.8 2.8 85.3 84.4 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 8.0 9.2 9.7 2.8 85.6 83.1 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 6.9 7.6 7.4 2.6 82.6 80.6 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 8.4 9.8 10.2 3.0 86.1 83.7 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 5.6 6.3 7.8 2.2 81.8 78.5 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 5.9 6.2 6.0 2.2 78.4 77.5 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 8.3 10.2 11.1 3.5 90.6 89.0 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------