***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 7.1 8.8 1.8 73.7 69.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.2 7.0 8.7 2.0 78.3 74.1 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 8.3 8.9 8.5 1.9 75.8 71.7 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.6 6.1 1.3 69.1 66.4 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.1 6.4 1.5 70.1 67.0 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.2 4.5 1.2 68.1 65.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.7 8.6 2.0 77.1 72.9 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 1.7 1.9 5.3 1.6 72.0 68.8 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.3 7.1 1.6 71.6 68.0 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.9 5.9 1.6 71.7 68.1 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.3 6.0 1.4 70.2 67.0 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 4.5 4.5 5.5 1.3 69.4 66.4 1.0 2.6 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 4.5 4.3 5.0 1.1 66.8 64.2 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 6.7 7.3 7.3 2.1 77.5 73.6 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.8 6.3 1.2 68.5 65.8 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.8 5.3 1.2 67.7 65.2 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 6.4 7.2 8.7 2.2 79.8 75.4 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.5 5.6 1.8 73.4 69.9 1.1 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.2 7.0 8.6 2.0 78.2 74.1 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 1.9 2.2 4.6 2.0 75.1 72.2 -1.7 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.1 6.4 8.0 1.7 72.5 68.7 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 5.7 6.5 8.6 2.2 80.1 75.7 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.8 8.3 2.0 77.8 73.7 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 5.5 6.0 7.0 1.9 75.4 71.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.4 7.2 1.6 72.1 68.7 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.7 5.2 1.2 68.2 65.5 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.0 8.0 1.7 73.1 69.1 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 4.4 4.2 6.0 1.2 68.2 65.7 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.9 5.3 5.3 2.0 74.7 71.5 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.3 8.7 2.0 76.9 72.8 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------