***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 4.2 6.7 0.8 60.9 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.4 6.3 1.0 64.6 62.0 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.5 6.4 1.0 64.4 61.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.6 1.0 4.1 0.7 60.9 59.6 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.9 4.5 0.8 61.4 59.9 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.8 2.5 0.5 57.3 57.0 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.2 6.3 0.9 62.8 60.5 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.0 -0.9 3.4 0.7 60.6 59.2 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 5.2 4.7 5.2 0.9 62.0 60.2 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 5.0 4.3 4.0 0.8 61.2 59.5 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.1 4.2 0.8 62.1 60.4 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 3.7 2.9 3.8 0.7 60.1 58.8 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.0 3.2 0.5 57.4 56.9 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.4 5.0 5.2 1.0 63.9 61.3 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.2 4.4 0.7 61.1 59.4 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 5.5 4.6 3.6 0.7 59.8 58.9 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.3 6.1 1.0 64.1 61.5 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.4 3.6 0.8 60.3 58.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 4.9 4.7 6.3 1.1 65.9 63.0 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -0.2 2.3 0.6 58.2 57.2 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.3 6.0 0.9 61.9 60.1 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.4 4.1 6.1 1.1 65.6 62.6 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 4.9 4.6 6.2 1.2 66.7 63.7 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.9 5.0 1.0 63.5 61.1 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.6 5.1 0.8 61.0 59.6 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.3 3.4 3.3 0.5 57.4 56.8 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.6 5.9 0.8 60.3 58.9 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.8 4.2 0.7 61.1 59.7 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 1.8 2.2 3.1 0.7 59.6 58.0 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.8 6.4 1.0 64.0 61.5 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------