***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 6.2 7.7 1.6 80.2 74.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 5.2 6.1 7.6 1.9 85.9 80.4 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 7.1 7.8 7.4 1.6 82.9 77.5 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 2.1 2.5 5.1 1.3 77.1 72.6 -0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 4.2 4.5 5.4 1.3 77.2 72.3 2.4 3.2 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 3.4 3.5 3.4 1.0 72.1 68.6 1.8 2.5 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 5.0 5.8 7.6 1.9 85.0 79.2 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.0 0.4 4.2 1.3 77.1 72.2 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.4 6.0 1.3 76.9 71.8 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 4.6 5.0 4.9 1.4 77.6 72.5 2.9 3.7 4.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.5 5.0 1.2 75.6 70.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 3.4 3.6 4.6 1.1 74.4 70.0 1.7 2.5 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.6 4.0 0.9 69.8 66.3 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 5.5 6.1 6.3 1.7 83.6 78.7 3.6 4.4 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.7 5.4 1.1 74.4 70.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.1 4.4 1.0 72.6 68.7 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 5.0 6.1 7.6 2.1 87.7 81.8 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.5 4.4 1.4 77.6 72.9 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 5.1 6.0 7.5 1.8 85.8 80.4 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 0.5 0.9 3.1 1.3 75.3 71.1 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.3 7.0 1.4 78.7 73.4 2.9 3.8 4.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 4.5 5.5 7.5 2.1 87.8 82.0 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 4.9 5.6 7.2 1.7 84.9 79.7 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 4.4 5.0 5.9 1.6 81.4 76.5 2.7 3.4 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.6 6.3 1.4 78.9 74.0 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 4.0 4.4 4.4 1.2 76.2 71.7 2.4 3.1 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 5.5 6.1 7.0 1.5 79.5 74.2 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 3.2 3.5 5.1 1.2 75.0 71.1 1.5 2.2 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.5 3.9 1.3 76.1 71.7 1.0 1.9 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 5.4 6.3 7.6 1.8 84.3 78.8 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------