***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 23.3 20.2 4.5 91.5 88.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 18.7 21.6 20.3 4.7 92.9 90.7 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 19.3 22.4 20.9 5.0 92.9 90.6 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 12.3 14.3 17.2 3.9 86.6 82.5 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 19.3 22.1 19.4 4.9 91.6 88.6 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 18.7 21.4 18.5 5.0 92.4 89.6 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 18.5 21.3 20.1 4.5 92.8 90.6 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 10.7 14.1 19.4 5.8 94.6 92.8 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 19.7 23.1 20.7 5.3 93.5 90.9 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 19.1 22.6 20.3 5.8 94.4 92.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 19.7 22.7 19.7 5.1 92.4 89.9 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 19.2 22.7 19.5 5.4 94.0 92.0 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 19.8 23.3 19.7 5.4 94.1 92.3 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.0 21.8 6.3 95.2 94.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 17.3 18.4 17.6 3.2 83.9 79.9 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 20.4 23.2 19.3 4.9 92.3 89.8 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 18.0 21.0 20.1 4.8 93.6 91.5 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 18.4 22.2 20.3 6.2 95.1 93.8 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 18.9 22.2 20.7 4.9 93.2 91.2 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 16.2 19.9 18.5 6.0 95.0 94.0 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 19.3 22.3 20.9 5.1 92.7 89.9 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 18.9 22.4 20.5 5.1 94.3 92.4 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 19.2 22.7 21.1 5.3 93.9 92.2 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 20.0 23.9 21.4 6.1 94.9 93.4 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 18.3 20.7 19.1 4.5 90.7 87.4 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 19.1 22.3 19.0 5.3 94.7 93.0 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 19.0 21.7 19.7 4.5 91.7 88.9 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 17.8 19.4 17.7 3.7 85.6 81.5 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 15.5 19.6 19.8 6.3 95.4 94.4 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 18.7 21.6 20.4 4.6 92.6 90.3 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------