***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 17.2 16.6 2.4 79.6 75.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.7 16.6 2.7 81.6 77.6 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 18.1 19.2 17.0 2.7 81.0 77.0 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.7 14.3 1.7 71.3 68.2 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.8 18.3 15.3 2.3 76.5 72.8 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 17.4 18.4 14.6 2.7 79.8 75.3 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 16.3 17.3 16.4 2.6 81.6 77.6 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.7 15.1 3.0 82.1 77.9 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 18.1 19.0 16.2 2.7 79.5 75.5 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 17.8 19.0 15.7 3.0 81.3 77.1 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 18.2 19.2 15.5 2.6 79.1 75.0 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 17.9 19.2 15.6 2.9 81.5 77.2 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 18.3 19.4 15.3 2.8 81.5 77.0 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 18.5 20.3 16.8 3.2 83.3 78.7 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.7 13.9 1.3 67.6 65.0 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 18.8 19.6 15.2 2.5 78.5 74.3 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 15.7 16.8 16.3 2.7 82.3 78.2 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 17.0 18.4 15.7 3.3 82.8 78.4 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 17.1 18.2 16.8 2.8 82.0 77.9 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 15.2 16.4 13.9 3.3 83.2 79.0 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 17.9 18.6 16.5 2.5 78.7 74.9 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 16.9 18.0 16.5 2.9 82.8 78.6 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 17.2 18.5 17.1 3.0 82.8 78.3 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 18.5 20.0 16.7 3.1 82.8 78.3 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.2 15.2 2.2 77.0 73.5 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 17.7 19.0 15.3 3.0 84.4 79.6 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 17.5 18.3 16.0 2.4 79.6 75.9 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.7 14.3 1.5 69.6 66.5 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.5 16.1 15.1 3.3 83.0 78.7 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.7 16.7 2.6 81.2 77.3 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------