***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 15.9 15.2 2.0 83.4 77.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 14.6 15.8 15.1 2.3 86.2 80.2 12.0 13.1 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.8 15.5 2.3 85.6 79.4 12.7 13.9 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.5 12.9 1.6 76.5 72.0 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.3 14.0 2.0 81.8 75.9 12.7 13.9 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 15.0 16.0 13.2 2.1 82.6 76.1 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 14.4 15.6 14.9 2.2 85.6 79.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 7.4 8.6 13.6 2.5 86.4 80.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.8 17.0 14.9 2.3 84.5 78.2 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 15.2 16.5 14.3 2.5 86.0 79.5 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 15.7 16.8 14.1 2.2 83.5 77.3 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 15.4 16.7 14.1 2.4 85.5 79.3 12.6 13.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.8 17.0 13.9 2.3 85.1 78.7 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.0 17.8 15.4 2.8 88.8 81.9 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.8 13.0 1.3 73.6 69.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 16.4 17.3 13.8 2.1 82.6 76.4 13.5 14.7 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 13.9 15.2 14.8 2.3 87.0 81.2 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.3 15.7 14.2 2.7 87.2 80.5 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 14.9 16.3 15.4 2.3 86.8 80.5 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 12.5 14.0 12.3 2.6 87.1 80.9 9.7 10.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.6 15.2 2.2 83.9 77.8 12.7 13.9 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 14.8 16.2 15.1 2.4 87.9 81.9 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.0 16.6 15.7 2.5 87.7 81.1 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.0 17.6 15.3 2.7 87.7 81.0 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 14.4 15.3 13.8 1.9 81.4 76.0 11.8 13.0 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 15.3 16.6 13.7 2.4 86.9 80.8 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 15.1 16.2 14.6 2.0 83.1 77.4 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.3 13.2 1.5 75.1 70.7 11.9 12.8 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 11.7 13.3 13.5 2.7 87.6 81.1 8.9 10.1 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.8 15.2 2.2 85.5 79.5 11.9 13.1 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------