***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 1.0 2.3 16.9 19.5 16.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.1 1.8 2.9 25.5 25.0 20.9 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 2.1 1.2 1.9 14.8 15.1 13.6 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 1.3 1.1 2.1 14.6 16.6 15.8 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 1.6 0.6 0.9 6.9 7.9 6.7 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.1 9.2 11.6 10.6 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.8 32.7 30.3 26.7 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 2.4 0.8 1.0 8.0 8.2 6.8 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.3 10.0 10.7 9.7 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 2.2 0.8 1.1 8.0 8.0 6.7 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 1.7 0.6 0.9 7.5 9.1 7.3 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 1.5 0.7 1.1 9.5 11.5 9.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.2 0.5 4.1 5.9 4.1 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 3.1 1.6 1.6 10.8 11.6 9.0 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 1.0 1.0 2.3 16.1 20.4 19.4 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.7 1.0 8.5 11.1 9.5 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.3 39.8 34.5 28.6 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.3 9.2 9.7 7.7 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.5 1.9 2.7 22.7 22.5 19.2 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 1.8 0.4 1.1 7.2 7.0 5.6 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.7 1.4 10.8 13.0 11.8 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.8 42.3 35.7 30.0 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 2.3 1.6 2.6 19.7 19.0 17.0 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 1.6 0.4 1.2 8.2 9.1 7.2 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 1.1 0.4 1.6 11.2 13.9 12.0 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.3 0.2 0.4 3.4 4.3 3.1 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.4 17.7 20.4 17.8 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.0 15.0 17.9 16.9 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 2.6 1.0 1.2 8.0 8.3 6.7 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.2 1.8 2.9 24.4 24.0 21.1 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------