***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 1.5 6.8 52.5 44.1 32.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.8 3.6 7.7 55.9 45.0 32.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.6 7.5 58.1 46.4 33.9 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.6 7.2 56.2 45.4 35.8 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.8 7.0 56.0 45.2 34.0 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.5 2.8 7.0 55.9 43.9 31.1 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.7 3.4 7.9 57.5 44.3 32.1 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 2.4 4.0 7.3 52.1 43.4 32.7 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.1 4.0 7.5 61.4 47.7 35.2 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.7 57.9 45.7 33.9 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.4 2.6 6.1 52.8 43.3 32.8 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.8 3.0 5.9 49.2 41.4 31.6 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 1.3 1.9 5.0 39.3 32.6 23.7 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.2 6.5 9.1 58.1 46.3 34.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.6 7.1 54.2 45.0 36.7 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.2 2.1 5.8 49.4 39.6 29.8 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.1 3.8 7.9 57.3 45.1 33.0 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.6 10.0 65.1 48.6 36.2 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.6 7.7 56.6 46.3 33.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.4 11.7 56.8 45.3 34.3 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.0 3.9 7.1 58.6 46.7 34.2 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.8 8.7 61.4 47.5 36.9 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.1 4.9 8.0 58.7 48.0 35.6 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.3 5.4 9.0 62.7 48.2 34.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.8 7.2 50.1 42.2 31.9 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 1.4 2.4 5.4 43.7 39.1 27.0 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.8 7.3 51.2 42.7 31.6 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.0 6.9 56.8 45.6 36.0 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 3.2 6.8 11.3 63.6 48.8 36.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.9 3.6 7.6 55.8 45.3 33.1 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------