***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 10.7 10.2 77.8 56.6 43.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.0 80.6 56.9 42.3 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.9 10.8 84.5 58.9 44.8 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.4 10.9 74.2 54.8 43.0 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.1 10.8 76.4 55.4 43.4 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.9 12.6 81.2 57.0 43.8 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.4 11.2 80.9 57.2 42.5 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.4 14.4 12.3 77.9 54.9 42.3 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.8 11.1 80.6 57.1 44.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.4 12.1 80.9 56.0 43.9 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.3 10.2 74.9 54.2 41.6 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.1 10.4 73.4 53.3 40.3 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.2 11.0 72.9 52.3 39.1 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.4 14.1 13.1 85.7 58.5 44.6 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.8 11.1 73.3 54.9 42.8 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.5 10.6 75.0 54.2 41.2 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.3 11.3 78.7 56.7 42.6 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.8 13.0 14.3 89.0 59.2 46.3 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.7 11.1 82.9 57.8 43.0 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 14.5 18.4 87.6 58.9 45.8 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.6 81.0 57.4 44.5 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.7 11.7 79.8 56.4 42.5 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.5 11.5 86.3 59.2 44.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.5 12.7 88.7 59.8 45.8 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.1 11.3 76.2 55.5 42.9 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.0 10.8 71.6 52.1 38.4 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.3 11.2 78.5 56.6 43.4 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.1 10.9 75.4 55.4 43.0 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 18.8 15.9 89.1 59.5 45.9 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.1 10.8 81.0 57.2 42.7 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------