***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 7.9 11.0 12.9 4.5 95.9 94.6 4.1 5.5 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 8.1 10.3 11.6 3.6 91.8 90.3 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 9.9 12.0 12.1 3.7 92.1 90.9 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 5.3 7.8 9.5 3.8 92.7 91.4 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 7.1 8.4 10.2 3.3 88.2 87.1 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 6.3 7.6 7.5 3.2 88.9 87.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 7.8 10.0 11.8 3.8 92.5 90.8 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 2.8 3.7 7.3 2.7 84.7 83.5 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 8.1 9.2 9.3 2.6 85.8 84.4 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 7.4 8.0 7.7 2.5 83.3 81.8 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 7.1 7.7 8.8 2.5 83.2 81.9 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 6.3 7.3 8.4 2.9 86.3 85.3 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 6.4 6.9 7.5 2.1 78.3 76.8 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 7.6 8.2 8.5 2.0 78.5 76.4 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 6.8 7.9 9.8 2.6 88.3 86.8 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 7.9 8.6 8.4 2.6 83.3 82.0 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.4 11.1 3.4 89.9 88.4 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 6.4 7.1 7.4 2.5 82.0 80.5 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.6 11.3 3.3 90.6 89.2 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 3.7 4.5 6.5 2.9 84.4 83.4 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 7.7 8.9 10.7 2.9 87.6 86.1 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 7.1 8.3 10.8 2.9 87.4 85.6 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 7.5 8.8 10.8 2.9 88.3 86.9 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 6.9 7.5 8.7 2.1 80.1 78.3 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 8.2 10.9 12.2 4.3 94.7 93.6 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 7.0 7.8 7.9 2.8 84.6 83.2 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.6 11.5 12.5 4.3 94.2 92.5 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 5.9 7.0 9.1 3.0 87.9 86.4 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 5.8 6.5 6.4 2.3 80.4 79.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 8.3 11.0 12.2 4.0 93.9 92.6 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------