***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.4 4.1 0.1 51.6 50.8 2.0 3.3 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.4 2.3 3.6 0.0 49.6 50.0 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.6 4.1 0.2 52.3 52.0 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -0.5 1.5 0.1 51.2 51.0 -2.4 -0.6 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.0 50.2 50.7 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 51.5 52.7 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.4 2.2 3.7 -0.1 49.2 49.7 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.4 0.5 0.3 53.2 52.8 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.7 2.3 0.1 50.7 51.1 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.2 1.0 0.2 52.2 52.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.8 1.5 0.1 51.7 51.8 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 53.0 52.8 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 50.4 51.3 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.0 2.0 -0.1 49.2 50.6 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.0 2.6 0.2 53.4 52.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.0 50.6 51.4 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.1 3.4 -0.2 47.5 48.6 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 51.7 51.9 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 0.7 2.5 3.7 0.0 50.7 51.0 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -3.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 51.4 51.4 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.7 3.4 0.1 51.1 51.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.7 3.3 -0.1 48.3 49.3 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.4 3.7 0.1 51.2 51.8 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.1 52.0 52.3 0.9 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.7 3.0 0.1 51.8 50.9 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 50.7 51.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.3 3.7 0.1 51.5 50.6 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.1 51.5 51.3 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -1.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 51.0 51.1 -1.3 0.4 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.8 3.8 0.1 50.7 50.7 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------