***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 5.4 6.4 8.3 2.1 85.7 76.6 3.3 4.2 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 5.0 5.6 7.4 1.6 80.4 72.7 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 7.1 7.8 8.0 1.8 82.9 74.6 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 2.1 2.9 5.4 1.8 82.5 75.2 -0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 4.2 4.7 6.0 1.6 80.3 73.2 2.4 3.2 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 3.5 4.1 4.0 1.8 82.4 76.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.5 7.5 1.7 80.8 73.3 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 0.1 0.6 4.0 1.5 79.6 73.1 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.6 5.9 1.4 78.9 71.9 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 4.7 5.1 4.5 1.5 78.3 71.9 2.9 3.7 4.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 4.3 4.7 5.3 1.4 78.6 72.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 3.5 4.0 4.8 1.6 80.9 74.3 1.7 2.5 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 3.7 4.0 4.3 1.4 77.4 71.7 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.5 5.5 1.1 72.5 67.2 3.6 4.4 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 4.6 5.2 6.3 1.5 81.4 74.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.5 4.8 1.5 78.9 72.7 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 4.9 5.2 7.1 1.4 77.3 70.8 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 3.2 3.5 3.9 1.4 76.3 70.4 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.6 80.2 72.6 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 0.7 1.1 2.9 1.5 77.7 71.7 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 4.8 5.3 7.1 1.6 79.9 72.4 2.9 3.8 4.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 4.4 4.6 7.0 1.3 76.0 69.7 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 4.8 5.2 7.2 1.4 79.0 71.7 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 4.4 4.6 5.4 1.3 75.6 69.6 2.7 3.4 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 5.2 6.1 7.3 2.0 85.4 76.5 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 4.2 4.6 4.3 1.6 80.8 74.7 2.4 3.1 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.6 7.9 2.0 85.0 76.1 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 3.3 3.8 5.4 1.6 80.3 73.8 1.5 2.2 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.4 3.4 1.3 74.7 69.2 1.0 1.9 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.3 6.1 7.8 1.8 82.9 74.5 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------