***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.9 23.6 22.7 6.4 96.8 95.9 13.7 15.6 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.8 22.7 6.1 96.2 95.2 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.4 22.9 22.9 6.0 94.2 93.2 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 12.8 16.3 18.9 5.8 94.0 92.7 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 19.5 22.5 20.9 5.8 93.0 92.1 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 18.8 21.4 19.6 5.8 92.3 91.5 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.3 22.1 5.8 95.7 94.7 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 10.8 13.1 19.8 5.6 91.0 90.3 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 19.9 22.9 21.7 5.6 92.9 92.0 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 19.2 21.8 20.8 5.9 92.0 91.2 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 19.8 22.4 21.5 5.6 91.7 90.8 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 19.4 21.9 20.4 5.6 91.7 90.9 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 19.9 22.3 21.1 5.5 91.1 90.5 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 19.9 22.3 21.7 5.3 90.2 89.4 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.7 20.9 20.8 5.5 95.7 94.6 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 20.5 23.2 20.9 5.7 92.0 91.3 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.2 21.6 21.6 5.6 95.3 94.2 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 18.4 20.9 20.4 5.9 91.2 90.5 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 19.0 23.0 22.8 6.0 95.4 94.4 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 16.2 18.4 18.5 5.6 90.2 89.5 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 19.4 22.3 22.2 5.5 92.7 91.8 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.0 22.0 21.4 5.1 93.3 92.3 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 19.3 22.3 22.3 5.4 92.8 91.8 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.0 22.6 21.9 5.6 91.0 90.1 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 18.5 22.0 21.4 6.0 95.2 94.2 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 19.2 21.4 19.2 5.2 91.3 90.5 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 19.2 23.4 22.1 6.2 96.4 95.5 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 18.3 21.2 19.7 5.5 93.6 92.4 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 15.4 17.9 19.7 5.7 90.4 89.7 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.9 22.7 6.1 96.0 95.1 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------