***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.9 16.7 2.4 75.8 68.5 13.0 14.9 16.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.5 16.4 16.4 1.9 71.0 66.2 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 17.8 17.7 16.9 2.0 70.7 65.9 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.7 12.5 14.2 2.5 76.4 67.8 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 17.7 17.5 15.2 2.0 70.4 65.0 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 17.2 17.3 14.5 2.3 71.6 65.9 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.1 16.2 1.9 71.1 66.1 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 9.4 9.0 14.2 1.7 66.8 63.2 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 18.0 17.8 16.0 2.0 70.5 65.4 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 17.5 17.2 15.1 1.9 68.7 64.2 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 18.1 17.7 15.7 1.9 69.2 64.4 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 17.6 17.3 14.9 1.8 68.2 64.1 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 17.9 17.6 15.3 1.9 68.7 64.5 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 18.1 16.9 15.5 1.2 61.5 60.9 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.2 17.0 15.7 2.6 79.5 69.9 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 18.7 18.5 15.4 2.1 70.5 65.3 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.2 15.6 1.6 68.7 64.6 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 16.6 15.9 14.5 1.6 65.2 62.5 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.9 16.7 16.5 1.8 69.7 65.6 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 14.6 13.9 12.6 1.4 63.9 61.5 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 17.7 17.4 16.4 1.8 69.6 64.9 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.5 15.9 15.5 1.4 65.6 63.0 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 17.0 16.4 16.5 1.5 66.2 63.8 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 18.1 17.4 15.8 1.6 65.2 62.8 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 16.6 16.7 15.5 2.2 73.6 66.8 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 17.3 17.0 14.3 1.8 68.9 64.8 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.6 16.2 2.3 74.9 68.0 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.7 15.0 2.6 76.7 68.2 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.1 13.0 13.7 1.4 62.7 61.2 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.5 16.6 2.0 72.1 66.8 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------