***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.1 14.1 2.1 72.8 65.0 10.5 12.4 14.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.0 13.7 1.7 69.4 62.3 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.1 14.2 1.9 69.7 63.1 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 8.6 9.0 11.9 2.3 73.9 66.7 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.1 12.7 2.1 71.3 65.1 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 14.9 15.1 12.3 2.7 74.4 68.5 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.0 13.6 1.7 69.9 62.4 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 7.1 6.9 12.0 2.1 69.8 65.1 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.6 13.3 2.1 70.4 64.4 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.0 14.9 12.7 2.1 70.1 64.7 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.6 15.7 13.0 2.3 72.3 66.3 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.2 12.7 2.2 71.9 66.5 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.7 15.8 12.5 2.5 73.5 67.9 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.1 14.8 12.9 1.3 62.9 59.3 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 13.8 14.1 12.6 2.3 75.3 67.7 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.3 16.5 12.9 2.5 74.2 67.9 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.3 13.3 1.6 68.1 61.2 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.9 13.6 12.4 1.9 67.5 62.9 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.3 13.9 1.7 68.4 61.9 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 12.0 11.7 10.4 1.7 66.5 62.7 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.2 13.7 2.0 70.3 64.0 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.3 13.7 13.1 1.3 65.4 60.0 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.3 14.0 1.5 66.0 60.8 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.4 13.2 1.7 66.6 61.7 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.5 12.7 2.2 73.5 66.0 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 15.1 15.2 12.1 2.2 72.7 67.5 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.8 15.2 13.6 2.2 73.6 65.6 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.4 13.7 12.3 2.4 74.4 67.2 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 11.3 10.8 11.6 1.7 65.8 61.9 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.2 13.8 1.8 70.3 63.0 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------