***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 8.4 11.5 10.4 0.1 51.5 50.4 9.2 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.4 10.4 10.3 0.2 51.8 50.6 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 8.4 11.3 10.6 0.0 49.9 49.2 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.0 8.1 0.2 52.4 51.7 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.7 11.4 8.9 -0.1 49.3 49.2 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.2 11.0 8.1 0.0 49.8 49.6 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 7.2 10.2 10.3 0.2 51.9 50.6 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.3 -0.1 48.8 48.5 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.1 11.7 9.4 -0.1 48.5 48.3 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 8.6 11.0 8.8 -0.2 48.5 48.1 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.9 11.7 9.1 0.0 49.8 49.2 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.8 11.5 8.8 0.0 49.7 49.2 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.8 11.5 8.4 0.0 49.9 49.5 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.8 11.3 9.5 -0.5 45.4 45.9 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.2 9.6 9.0 0.4 55.1 53.3 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 9.3 12.2 8.8 0.1 51.0 50.1 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.1 9.9 10.1 0.2 51.8 50.3 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 7.9 10.0 8.6 -0.3 46.9 46.8 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 7.7 10.8 10.5 0.1 51.0 50.1 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.9 8.3 7.0 -0.2 47.7 47.8 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 8.6 11.3 10.0 -0.1 48.7 48.6 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.5 10.5 10.1 0.1 51.1 49.9 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 48.9 48.5 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.2 11.8 9.5 -0.3 47.1 47.1 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 7.7 10.5 8.9 0.1 51.2 50.5 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.5 10.7 8.3 -0.1 49.2 49.6 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 8.3 11.4 9.9 0.2 51.8 50.6 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.9 8.5 0.3 53.0 51.8 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.4 7.6 8.0 -0.4 46.0 46.3 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 7.6 10.4 10.4 0.1 51.7 50.6 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------