***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.9 4.1 4.6 39.0 38.0 26.9 3.2 6.9 12.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.5 4.3 39.5 38.1 27.5 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.5 5.1 4.5 39.9 38.7 27.0 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.9 29.4 32.7 23.1 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 2.8 4.0 4.0 32.4 34.4 23.3 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 1.5 2.3 3.4 32.0 32.0 21.2 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 3.3 4.1 36.7 36.2 26.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.5 4.7 4.5 35.2 32.5 23.1 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.6 3.8 4.0 33.2 33.5 23.6 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 3.2 4.2 4.4 33.6 31.4 22.7 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.6 3.8 4.1 34.4 34.9 23.2 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.3 3.7 4.4 39.2 36.5 23.8 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.4 4.0 4.8 39.6 37.2 22.8 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.6 8.7 6.1 44.7 40.0 28.9 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.8 2.6 3.5 28.2 33.7 21.7 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.3 3.7 4.2 35.6 36.4 23.0 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.7 4.3 38.3 36.5 26.6 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 2.9 3.7 5.2 38.2 34.1 26.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.4 4.7 4.5 40.9 38.9 28.0 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 4.3 5.5 38.2 33.9 26.5 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.9 4.1 35.0 34.9 24.3 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.3 3.8 4.9 42.6 40.1 28.1 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.7 4.9 43.2 40.0 28.8 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.5 5.2 5.1 40.1 37.2 27.3 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.8 4.4 33.2 35.1 24.3 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.6 4.9 4.7 46.0 40.8 26.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 2.9 4.4 35.4 35.6 25.0 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.6 30.2 33.6 22.4 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 4.9 6.3 5.4 40.3 35.0 27.2 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.0 4.1 4.3 39.4 38.7 27.6 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------