***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.3 10.9 88.3 60.2 46.6 2.2 4.5 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.3 11.6 104.2 65.5 49.9 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.1 10.5 87.9 59.6 46.7 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.5 11.0 81.3 57.8 43.6 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.4 10.4 79.1 56.2 42.8 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.6 11.8 91.6 61.5 48.1 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.8 11.5 101.6 64.6 48.8 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.1 12.2 85.6 59.1 47.5 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.1 10.2 78.3 55.7 43.1 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 11.4 83.6 58.2 46.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.3 10.8 81.7 56.7 44.2 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.7 11.6 86.4 59.4 46.8 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.4 11.4 85.5 59.5 47.1 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.0 13.6 99.9 63.6 51.4 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.4 10.4 81.2 58.7 42.8 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.5 10.9 83.8 58.5 45.9 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.1 12.5 109.9 67.2 49.3 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.5 12.3 86.7 58.9 47.5 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.6 11.5 103.4 65.1 50.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.2 15.3 86.5 58.9 48.8 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.4 10.0 78.4 56.1 43.3 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.7 10.6 13.6 116.6 69.2 52.0 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.9 11.7 102.3 64.5 51.4 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.0 11.7 88.5 59.4 47.3 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.9 11.0 78.3 56.5 42.8 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.1 12.1 85.2 58.9 46.9 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 5.2 11.2 84.7 58.8 45.3 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.7 10.4 82.1 58.6 43.7 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.8 13.7 90.5 60.1 48.7 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.8 11.3 99.5 64.0 49.6 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------