***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.9 17.6 16.0 129.9 72.9 57.7 4.9 9.0 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.5 18.0 14.2 125.9 71.9 56.9 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.8 16.8 15.7 127.6 72.3 57.5 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.4 14.6 101.3 64.6 53.1 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.6 14.3 103.7 65.2 53.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.4 11.8 84.8 58.7 49.4 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.1 15.5 14.1 123.2 71.3 56.5 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.8 23.3 15.5 110.2 67.3 57.5 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.0 15.4 108.2 66.6 54.6 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.9 13.2 15.9 109.7 67.0 56.3 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.7 13.3 101.9 64.6 54.3 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.6 13.5 104.6 65.8 55.7 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.4 14.0 14.0 101.1 64.7 54.4 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.5 20.4 19.0 125.9 71.7 57.2 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.9 14.5 100.0 65.2 53.1 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.3 13.1 100.1 64.4 54.0 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.1 16.5 13.4 118.4 69.9 54.4 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 17.1 17.6 115.2 68.5 57.0 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 16.4 14.6 128.1 72.4 57.5 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.2 21.6 22.1 121.8 70.6 59.7 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.9 15.2 113.4 68.4 55.9 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.2 14.1 116.8 69.5 55.2 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 16.8 15.6 129.7 72.8 57.8 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.6 15.7 17.2 120.7 70.1 56.7 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 15.3 16.5 116.3 69.2 56.5 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.1 15.3 105.4 66.6 55.2 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.3 16.2 123.7 71.2 56.7 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.6 12.9 95.4 63.1 51.7 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 25.6 18.9 118.1 69.4 58.0 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.5 15.6 14.9 128.8 72.7 57.7 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------