***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 14.6 16.0 124.1 71.4 50.8 4.1 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 12.9 11.9 102.3 65.1 44.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.5 21.0 15.4 123.4 71.1 50.3 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.3 20.7 17.7 125.5 71.9 51.3 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.2 20.8 16.7 123.6 71.3 51.0 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 5.4 19.2 15.6 116.6 69.5 51.9 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.8 12.1 107.0 66.8 45.9 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.3 23.6 17.1 114.1 68.6 51.2 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.5 18.6 17.0 122.3 70.9 50.8 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 21.4 17.3 118.5 69.8 51.3 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.2 20.8 15.7 116.7 69.5 50.7 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 21.3 15.5 113.5 68.6 51.0 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.9 20.1 16.2 116.8 69.6 52.0 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.2 21.7 17.0 111.7 67.7 48.7 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.4 18.2 17.5 122.0 71.1 50.4 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.0 19.7 15.8 118.0 70.0 51.7 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.7 10.9 95.9 63.0 43.4 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 20.6 17.9 120.3 70.2 52.1 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.5 15.8 12.2 101.4 64.7 45.0 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 23.1 21.4 114.4 68.6 52.2 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.6 20.0 16.6 128.1 72.4 50.7 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.9 12.2 10.7 87.3 59.7 43.1 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.3 13.2 104.1 65.4 46.5 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 18.9 16.7 120.6 70.3 50.4 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.9 17.4 123.4 71.3 51.2 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.0 19.3 16.6 117.9 70.0 51.9 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.2 15.8 16.1 119.9 70.2 50.6 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.9 19.4 16.7 122.7 71.2 51.2 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 28.0 18.8 118.9 69.8 52.5 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.7 13.4 112.2 68.0 47.6 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------