***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 26.4 43.1 47.4 96.2 55.8 48.2 27.9 38.9 51.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.1 38.2 42.0 93.6 53.9 46.6 22.8 35.0 49.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 30.5 48.5 46.0 96.1 55.4 48.4 30.8 44.0 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 54.5 45.3 47.2 85.3 47.9 44.2 33.8 47.1 62.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 48.3 41.9 45.4 86.0 48.2 44.1 32.6 43.0 54.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 39.5 30.8 42.6 83.8 46.1 43.0 22.8 33.3 46.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 37.7 33.0 41.8 92.5 53.0 45.8 20.1 30.8 43.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 66.4 56.3 49.3 87.6 48.4 44.6 42.1 57.8 75.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 44.1 38.0 46.6 87.6 49.1 44.6 28.9 38.6 49.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 50.7 43.2 49.1 87.7 48.6 44.6 32.5 44.6 57.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 46.2 38.3 44.0 84.9 47.0 43.3 29.4 40.2 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 48.8 40.9 45.0 87.8 48.9 44.9 29.7 41.8 55.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 29.2 40.0 46.5 87.2 48.4 44.6 28.9 41.4 55.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 44.0 65.7 55.7 96.8 55.6 49.6 44.3 59.9 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.4 34.8 45.9 84.9 49.0 45.0 23.1 35.5 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 44.1 35.5 44.1 85.7 47.7 43.8 25.5 37.3 51.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 41.7 36.0 41.2 90.7 51.9 44.4 22.5 34.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 53.4 48.6 52.9 91.5 51.2 46.4 36.6 47.6 59.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 44.8 42.8 94.1 54.1 47.4 26.9 40.8 58.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.9 57.2 64.3 92.6 52.1 47.2 42.6 55.7 69.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.1 41.3 45.9 90.2 51.3 45.5 28.4 40.3 54.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 47.3 41.0 43.3 91.0 51.9 45.4 25.9 39.2 55.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 29.6 48.0 45.4 95.7 55.1 48.8 29.3 43.2 59.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 34.0 51.1 50.6 93.9 53.5 47.8 34.5 48.0 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 25.2 38.4 49.2 88.8 50.5 45.3 25.5 38.1 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 46.1 41.4 48.8 91.8 51.7 46.7 28.4 40.1 53.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 23.8 37.6 47.9 91.7 52.5 46.3 24.8 35.7 48.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.9 34.6 43.6 84.3 47.8 43.9 25.0 36.0 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 75.4 71.2 56.8 93.9 53.0 48.0 55.2 68.9 83.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.7 39.6 43.8 96.0 55.5 48.2 23.0 35.1 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------